The Purple

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In this edition, we explore Q1 2025 securities lending trends, spotlight APAC’s standout 27% revenue growth, introduce EquiLend’s Short Squeeze Score, examine corporate bond short interest signals and highlight Korean short selling performance.

The Initial Impact of the 2024 U.S. Election on Securities Lending

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With two months now elapsed since the 2024 U.S. presidential election, policy shifts planned by the incoming administration have begun to come into focus, and broader financial markets have reacted in kind. While the implications of a potentially dramatic shift are only beginning to be realized, there are key signals and themes which can already be observed within the securities finance market.

APAC 2024 Performance

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While global securities lending revenue faced headwinds in 2024, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region showed resilience, experiencing a comparatively modest 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) decline to $2.1 billion. The majority of revenue was generated by equities, contributing $2 billion, representing a 0.3% YoY decline. A 3.3% increase in fees was offset by a 3.8% decrease in on-loan balances.

Recapping Q3 Performance – A Mixed Bag for Securities Lending Participants

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U.S. equities, which generated 44% of global securities finance revenue, continued to cool year-over-year. With a strong run for U.S. stocks, one that has seen a 20% return for the S&P 500 year-to-date, and inflation concerns beginning to abate, the “Specials” side of the U.S. securities lending market has been understandably quieter after an economically tumultuous 2023.

Wisdom of the Crowd?

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In his June 21, 2023, testimony before congress, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell referred to the central bank’s view of bank-run mechanics as “outdated.” His comments, which sought to address the events leading up to Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, allude to the fact that today, the genesis of financial panic is more likely to come from message boards than board rooms.