Few sectors have been re-rated as quickly and dramatically as oil and gas storage and transportation since hostilities began. As seaborne crude routes were disrupted and domestic North American infrastructure surged in strategic value, midstream operators and tanker names saw their equity valuations climb sharply. Our securities finance data tells the full story of rising prices, rising loan quantities, and a short-selling community making a very specific bet that the conflict ends quickly, and the premium evaporates with it. 

ONEOK (OKE), a diversified energy company with a focus on natural gas, is the clearest illustration of this dynamic. At the start of the year, OKE was trading around $73–74 per share with approximately 26.2 million shares on loan and utilization, sitting at 9.68%. As the conflict escalated through February and into March, the stock climbed steadily, reaching $92.96 by March 30th with a gain of roughly 27% from January 1st. This price rally saw shares on loan surge to over 51.8 million by mid-March, representing a near-doubling of short interest from the start of the year with utilization climbing to 19.02%. 

If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and U.S. domestic midstream infrastructure loses its scarcity premium, the stock could give back a meaningful portion of its gains. As ongoing ceasefire talks trigger an immediate relief rally across risk assets and send oil prices lower, these shorts may be well-positioned in the near term. 

International Seaways (INSW), a marine shipping company with a focus on crude oil, presents an equally compelling data picture, but from the tanker side of the trade. INSW, one of the largest U.S.-flagged crude tanker operators, was a direct beneficiary of route disruption and surging spot rates on vessels operating outside the Persian Gulf. The stock moved from approximately $48–55 per share in early January to a peak above $76 in late February and early March, as the conflict intensified, representing a gain of over 40% at its high. Shares on loan climbed from roughly 1.4 million at the onset of the conflict to over 2.5 million by late March. The loan value itself surged from approximately $117 million at the start of the year to over $156 million by late March, reflecting both higher share prices and elevated borrow demand. 

As with OKE, the short thesis is not a fundamental rejection of the business, it’s a duration call. Tanker rates are acutely sensitive to geopolitical risk premiums. If the conflict de-escalates and Hormuz flows normalize, the spot rates that have underpinned INSW’s valuation will compress rapidly. Shorts in this name are, in effect, selling the ceasefire trade before it happens.